What Climate Change Will Actually Look Like Where You Live

Small Island Nations: When Rising Seas Become Existential

For countries such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and Fiji, rising sea levels threaten the physical foundations of entire communities. NASA projections indicate that these Pacific nations are committed to at least 15 centimetres of additional sea-level rise over the next 30 years.

That increase might sound modest, but its consequences are substantial. Areas of Tuvalu that currently experience fewer than five flood days annually could face approximately 25 days by mid-century. In parts of Kiribati, flooding could occur on an average of 65 days each year.

Under a low-emissions scenario, 30 centimetres of sea-level rise by 2050 could transform a coastal inundation event that once occurred once a century into one occurring every decade.

The consequences also extend underwater. Under a medium-warming scenario of 2.7°C, fishery catches in the most affected atolls could decline by as much as 65%. For some families, this could mean losing the equivalent of two meals per week. In places where relocation may eventually become unavoidable, climate adaptation becomes a question of whether entire communities can remain on their ancestral islands.